Analisis Saham - United Parcel Service (UPS)

Written By Fika Anzani

Aries Yuangga, Wakil Penasihat Berjangka

Ringkasan

UPS (NYSE: UPS) saat ini sedang menjalani salah satu transformasi margin paling brutal di sektor logistik. Di tengah sentimen negatif makro & volume, UPS diam-diam mengatur ulang bisnis dengan strategi Efficiency Reimagined yang masif:

✅ $3.5B cost cutting program aktif
✅ Exit low-margin Amazon volume → margin mix jauh lebih sehat
✅ Automation & AI-driven network optimization
✅ Margin domestik mulai ekspansi 110 bps YoY
✅ Valuasi sangat murah: hanya 7.1x EV/EBITDA → diskon 36% dari historical median

Analisis Teknikal

  • Harga Saat Ini: $117.58

  • Area Akumulasi Ideal: $82.00 – $92.65

  • Support Kuat: $80.00

  • Resistensi Jangka Pendek: $130.00

  • Target Jangka Menengah: $158.00

Harga sedang membentuk struktur base jangka panjang setelah multi-year downtrend. Zona $82–92 menjadi accumulation zone strategis untuk long-term reset thesis. Jika breakout level $130 tertembus, upside ke $158 terbuka lebar seiring margin reset berjalan.

Setup Trading

  • Buy Zone Akumulasi: $82.00 – $92.65

  • Stop Loss: < $78.00

  • Target Profit (TP):

    • TP1: $130.00

    • TP2: $158.00

Potensi Keuntungan dan Risiko

✅ $3.5B cost savings efficiency reimagined
✅ Automation 400+ facilities → labor cost cut masif
✅ Amazon volume reduction → margin mix sehat
✅ Healthcare & SMB growing share (31% total volume)
✅ Revenue per piece naik +4.5% YoY
✅ Domestic margin target 12% by 4Q26
✅ EBITDA growth >11% YoY FY25–26
✅ Valuasi EV/EBITDA 7.1x → historical diskon ekstrim

⚠️ Risiko eksekusi network automation (164 operation closures)
⚠️ Potensi service disruption selama reconfiguring
⚠️ Risiko trade war & US-China tariff eskalasi
⚠️ Labour inflation & severance cost short-term
⚠️ Tariff inventory destocking impact SMB cross-border volume

Fundamental Kunci & Katalis

1️⃣ Efficiency Reimagined: Brutal Cost-Out Program

  • $3.5B annualized cost savings FY25E

  • 200+ facility closures → network optimization

  • AI-driven sortation, predictive labor algorithm, robotics

2️⃣ Margin Mix Shift: Exit Low-Margin Amazon

  • Amazon glide-down = 8.5% US daily volume dikurangi

  • Fokus ke Healthcare, SMB & B2B commercial shipping

  • Healthcare revenue per piece +5% YoY

3️⃣ Automation Scaling → Permanent Cost Advantage

  • 64% network volume sudah automated (up 450 bps YoY)

  • Intelligent process redesign unlock $1B incremental annualized savings by 2026

4️⃣ Valuasi Super Diskon

Pandangan Analis

  • Wall Street Rating: BUY (3.84 dari 5)
    Dari 32 analis:
    ✅ 14 Strong Buy
    ✅ 3 Buy
    ⚠️ 12 Hold
    ❌ 2 Sell
    ❌ 1 Strong Sell

  • Target Harga Konsensus 12 Bulan:

    • Base Case = $158

    • Bull Case = $170 (jika margin domestic >12% lebih cepat)

    • Bear Case = $90 (jika transformasi network gagal deliver)

Kesimpulan

UPS saat ini salah satu asymmetric undervalued margin reset play paling menarik:

✅ Brutal cost-out execution
✅ Margin expansion visibility jelas hingga 2026
✅ Volume mix shifting ke healthcare & SMB profitable segments
✅ Valuasi extremely discounted → rerating hanya soal waktu

BUY on pullback $82–92 untuk positioning ke margin reset thesis 2025–2026. Target rerating ke EV/EBITDA 9.5x → $158.



*Disclaimer:

This information is provided for general information purposes only. Consider your investment objectives, financial resources and other relevant circumstances carefully before investing. This is not an invitation or an offer to invest, nor is it financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any investment.

Fika Anzani
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