Analisis Saham - Broadcom (AVGO)

Aries Yuangga, Wakil Penasihat Berjangka

Ringkasan

Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO) sudah bukan sekadar chip company biasa — mereka membangun full AI ecosystem dengan positioning unik: dominasi networking, storage, AI interconnect, data center infrastructure, sampai software via VMware acquisition.

✅ Gross & operating margin terus ekspansi
✅ VMware integration sangat sukses, cost synergy langsung terasa
✅ AI networking (Tomahawk, Jericho) jadi growth monster
✅ Valuasi masih murah bahkan setelah rally
✅ Revenue growth + profitability tetap brutal di tengah AI boom

Analisis Teknikal

• Harga Saat Ini: $264.00

• Area Akumulasi Ideal: $234.54 – $243.52

• Support Kuat: $221.61

• Resistensi Jangka Pendek: $265.43

• Target Jangka Menengah: $335.00

Secara teknikal AVGO lagi konsolidasi di atas breakout major, dengan support area Fibonacci $234–243 menjadi entry point akumulasi. Struktur uptrend masih sangat kuat, dengan target kenaikan berikutnya menuju $335 seiring AI capex global terus akselerasi.

Setup Trading

• Buy Zone Akumulasi: $234.54 – $243.52

• Stop Loss: < $230.00

• Target Profit (TP):

• TP1: $265.43

• TP2: $335.00

Potensi Keuntungan dan Risiko

✅ Revenue growth 20% YoY walau sudah $1T market cap
✅ Gross margin naik 300bps → Operating leverage brutal
✅ VMware integration → cost synergy langsung improve margin
✅ AI networking dominance: Tomahawk, Jericho, optical interconnect
✅ FCF margin solid di 35%+
✅ Seasonality bullish (July–August historically strong)
✅ Valuasi DCF punya upside 21–34% bahkan dengan growth konservatif

⚠️ Insider selling (CEO jual ~$30M) → short-term sentiment hit
⚠️ Geopolitical risk (US-China trade war, global conflict)
⚠️ Heavy AI capex cycle bisa volatile
⚠️ Large cap → growth law of large numbers mulai terasa di long-term

Fundamental Kunci & Katalis

1️⃣ AI Networking & Infrastructure Dominance

• Tomahawk switch shipments update → terus leading hyperscaler AI interconnect

• VMware Cloud Foundation 9.0 release → software stack terintegrasi AI workloads

• AI networking TAM projection terus naik 30–40% CAGR

2️⃣ VMware Synergy → Margin Machine

• SG&A/revenue drop signifikan → operating margin ekspansi

• R&D tetap growing sambil cost efficiency jalan

• VMware integration memperluas software ARR base AVGO

3️⃣ Balance Sheet Sangat Solid

• Cash $9.5B — low net debt

• Flexible untuk future M&A opportunity

• Financial optionality masih besar di growth M&A AI verticals

4️⃣ DCF Based Valuation Masih Sangat Undervalued

Pandangan Analis

• Wall Street Rating: STRONG BUY (4.60 dari 5)
  Dari 43 analis:
  ✅ 31 Strong Buy
  ✅ 7 Buy
  ⚠️ 5 Hold
  ❌ 0 Sell
  ❌ 0 Strong Sell

• Target Harga Konsensus 12 Bulan:

• Base Case = $335

• Bull Case = $360+ (jika AI data center hyperscaler capex accelerate terus)

• Bear Case = $240 (jika geopolitical event eskalasi berat)

Kesimpulan

Broadcom (AVGO) adalah salah satu "pure AI Infrastructure Compounder" paling solid di dunia saat ini:

✅ Revenue, profit, margin → semua improving brutal
✅ VMware integration → EPS growth boosting machine
✅ Dominasi AI data center interconnect critical layer
✅ Valuasi masih massively underappreciated secara DCF

BUY on pullback $234–243 untuk positioning long-term AI hypergrowth thesis menuju target $335++. 🚀📡

*Disclaimer:

This information is provided for general information purposes only. Consider your investment objectives, financial resources and other relevant circumstances carefully before investing. This is not an invitation or an offer to invest, nor is it financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any investment.