Analisis Saham - Alphabet (GOOG)

Written By Fika Anzani

Aries Yuangga, Wakil Penasihat Berjangka


Ringkasan

Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) lagi dipukul habis-habisan oleh ketakutan market terhadap AI disruption, ChatGPT, regulatory risk, dan kekhawatiran search akan runtuh. Tapi di balik narasi negatif, Google lagi build quietly one of the strongest AI operating machines di dunia.

✅ AI Overviews dan Gemini implementasi masif
✅ Search, YouTube, Cloud — semua lini bisnis siap akselerasi Q2
✅ Gross margin & operating margin record highs
✅ Valuasi super murah: 17x earnings forward
✅ Revenue, cashflow, AI capacity terus growing brutal

Analisis Teknikal

  • Harga Saat Ini: $166.01

  • Area Akumulasi Ideal: $142.66 – $153.64

  • Support Kuat: $132.00

  • Resistensi Jangka Pendek: $179.86

  • Target Jangka Menengah: $205.60

Harga membentuk retracement sehat setelah breakout tahun 2024. Pullback ke $142–153 jadi buy zone strategis buat positioning long-term. Breakout di atas $180 membuka jalan rally menuju $205 ke atas.

Setup Trading

  • Buy Zone Akumulasi: $142.66 – $153.64

  • Stop Loss: < $140.00

  • Target Profit (TP):

    • TP1: $179.86

    • TP2: $205.60

Potensi Keuntungan dan Risiko

✅ Search AI Overviews growing massive
✅ Gemini embedded di semua produk Google
✅ YouTube revenue acceleration (subs + ads)
✅ Google Cloud capex mulai monetizing → backlog GCP menguat
✅ Gross margin 59.7% — record high
✅ Operating margin 33.9% — record high
✅ AI token processed per bulan: 480 Triliun → brutal growth
✅ Valuasi cuma 17x PE forward

⚠️ Paid clicks growth slowing → short-term bear narrative
⚠️ Regulatory lawsuit US + EU antitrust risk
⚠️ Heavy AI Capex — FCF trough sementara
⚠️ Apple search deal uncertainty (jangka panjang)

Fundamental Kunci & Katalis

1️⃣ Search AI Leadership — Masih Dominan

  • AI Overviews > 1.5B monthly users

  • Gemini integrated di 15 produk dengan 500M+ users

  • Search DAUs tetap > 2.5B → jauh di atas ChatGPT

2️⃣ YouTube Accelerating Again

  • YouTube viewership 12% share of viewing di US (Nielsen)

  • Subscription & ad-stack AI optimization → monetisasi makin optimal

3️⃣ Google Cloud Momentum Naik

  • Cloud growth 28% YoY

  • Backlog GCP makin tebal → capacity expansion mulai unlock

  • Capex AI buildout → revenue catch-up 2026 forward

4️⃣ AI Compute Monster

  • 480 Triliun AI token processed per bulan (naik 50x YoY)

  • AI stack full integration: Search, Ads, Cloud, Android, Gemini

5️⃣ Valuasi Brutal Undervalue

Pandangan Analis

  • Wall Street Rating: BUY (4.41 dari 5)
    Dari 68 analis:
    ✅ 40 Strong Buy
    ✅ 16 Buy
    ⚠️ 12 Hold
    ❌ 0 Sell
    ❌ 0 Strong Sell

  • Target Harga Konsensus 12 Bulan:

    • Base Case = $205

    • Bull Case = $225+ (jika Q2 paid clicks growth akselerasi)

    • Bear Case = $150 (jika regulatory pressure lebih keras)

Kesimpulan

Alphabet (GOOG) hari ini salah satu "biggest AI mispriced stocks" di market global:

✅ Massive AI integration across all products
✅ Search tetap cash machine bahkan di tengah AI hype
✅ YouTube & Cloud siap akselerasi 2025–2026
✅ Valuasi ridiculous untuk bisnis sekuat ini

BUY on pullback $142–153 untuk positioning long-term AI dominance. Target rerating PE ke 20x memberikan upside ke $205++.

*Disclaimer:

This information is provided for general information purposes only. Consider your investment objectives, financial resources and other relevant circumstances carefully before investing. This is not an invitation or an offer to invest, nor is it financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any investment.

Fika Anzani
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