Analisis Saham - Boeing (BA)
Aries Yuangga, Wakil Penasihat Berjangka
Ringkasan
Boeing (NYSE: BA) kembali menunjukkan tanda-tanda perbaikan pasca krisis. Meskipun FAA production cap masih menahan pertumbuhan produksi 737 MAX, tapi di sisi order intake Boeing unggul signifikan dibanding Airbus berkat major deal Qatar Airways, backlog wide-body solid, dan potensi long-term cash flow yang mulai recovery.
✅ Net order lead jauh di depan Airbus (wide-body & total value)
✅ Free cash flow recovery jadi driver bullish long-term
✅ Wide-body freighter & long-haul demand solid
✅ Regulatory hurdles tetap jadi headwind jangka pendek
✅ Supply chain relatif lebih stabil dibanding Airbus
Analisis Teknikal
Harga Saat Ini: $201.31
Area Akumulasi Ideal: $187.29 – $195.19
Support Kuat: $177.6
Resistensi Jangka Pendek: $217.58
Target Jangka Menengah: $240.00
Setelah breakout awal tahun, BA sedang mengalami healthy pullback. Akumulasi optimal di bawah $195 dengan support kuat di $177. Jika reclaim area $217 terjadi, potensi rally lanjutan ke $240 terbuka lebar, seiring outlook cash flow dan backlog pengiriman wide-body solid.
Setup Trading
Buy Zone Akumulasi: $187.29 – $195.19
Stop Loss: < $177.00
Target Profit (TP):
TP1: $217.58
TP2: $240.00
Potensi Keuntungan dan Risiko
✅ Net orders YTD $55.1B → 70% market share vs Airbus
✅ Wide-body orders mendominasi backlog (Qatar, MAX, 787, 777X)
✅ Delivery value share 52% (lebih besar vs Airbus secara value meski unit lebih kecil)
✅ FCF recovery jadi long-term bullish thesis
✅ Backlog tetap sangat solid di hampir 15.000 pesawat total
✅ Supply chain lebih stabil dibanding Airbus
⚠️ FAA production cap MAX 38/month → limit near-term growth
⚠️ Media pressure pasca Air India crash → regulatory tightening
⚠️ Certification delay di beberapa varian (777X)
⚠️ Airbus tetap unggul di single-aisle deliveries
⚠️ Global airline capex sensitivity (jika makro melemah)
Fundamental Kunci & Katalis
1️⃣ Order Intake 2025 Solid — Leading Over Airbus
YTD net orders 512 unit vs Airbus 215 unit
Total value net order BA $55.1B (vs Airbus $18.3B)
Wide-body demand lebih stabil (freighter & international long-haul recovery)
2️⃣ Wide Body Dominance Jadi Moat Jangka Panjang
777X & 787 family tetap dominasi wide-body market
Qatar Airways, Emirates, Air India menjadi key customers
Freighter business leadership mengokohkan cash flow visibility
3️⃣ Regulatory Cap Tapi Ada Potensi Recovery 2026
FAA cap MAX 38/month → limit growth 2025
Approval kenaikan produksi MAX ke 42/month jadi kunci 2026 delivery boost
Regulasi post-crisis masih ketat tapi stabilisasi mulai terjadi
4️⃣ Free Cash Flow Recovery Mulai Nyala
FCF diproyeksi mulai stabil kembali ke $3B–$5B range 2025–2026
Backlog delivery acceleration → cash flow acceleration
5️⃣ Valuasi Relative Discount Untuk Long-Term Compound
Cash conversion dari wide-body backlog → bullish long-term thesis
Pandangan Analis
Wall Street Rating: BUY (4.31 dari 5)
Dari 29 analis:
✅ 17 Strong Buy
✅ 4 Buy
⚠️ 8 Hold
❌ 0 Sell
❌ 0 Strong SellTarget Harga Konsensus 12 Bulan:
Base Case = $230
Bull Case = $250+ (jika FAA cap production dinaikkan early 2026)
Bear Case = $180 (jika regulatory tightening memburuk pasca accident)
Kesimpulan
Boeing (BA) masih work-in-progress recovery play pasca multi-year crisis. Tapi positioning di wide-body market, freighter dominance, backlog yang solid, dan potensi cash flow recovery dalam 12–24 bulan ke depan menjadikannya menarik sebagai long-term compounder.
✅ Wide-body backlog king
✅ Cash flow mulai recovery
✅ Valuasi reasonable untuk multi-year re-rating
✅ FAA production cap jadi wild card 2025–2026
BUY on pullback $187–195 untuk positioning recovery long-term.
*Disclaimer:
This information is provided for general information purposes only. Consider your investment objectives, financial resources and other relevant circumstances carefully before investing. This is not an invitation or an offer to invest, nor is it financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any investment.
