Analisis Saham - Annaly Capital Management (NLY)
Aries Yuangga, Wakil Penasihat Berjangka
Tez: Strong Buy. Q3 menunjukkan net interest spread (NIS) membaik 4 kuartal berturut-turut (0.67%), book value (BVPS) naik 4% ke $19.25, dan dividen ter-cover 1.04× oleh EAD $0.73 (dividen $0.70).
Portofolio MBS tumbuh +10% QoQ ke $87.3B; penurunan suku bunga → biaya dana turun, nilai MBS naik.
Valuasi: ~1.09× P/B (diskon relatif vs AGNC ~1.15×) → rerating wajar ke $22.1–22.3 sembari mengantongi yield ~13.4% (annualized $2.80).
Analisis Teknis (1D)
Harga saat ini: $21.06
Buy Accumulation Zone (Fibo):
0.5: $20.44
0.618: $19.96
0.705: $19.61 ← area DCA utama
Support mayor: $18.43 (Fibo 1.000).
Resistance / Target:
R1: $22.45
R2: $23.32
R3: $24.43–$24.50 (target swing bila tren suku bunga pro-REIT lanjut)
Bacaan struktur: Higher low sejak Mei; reclaim di atas $21 membuka ruang retest $22.45 lalu extension ke $24+.
Setup Trading
Strategi masuk:
Scaling di $20.44 → $19.96 → $19.61.
Momentum add jika break & hold > $21.50.
Stop: konservatif <$19.40; agresif <$18.43 (struktur patah).
Target profit:
TP1: $22.45 (ambil 30–40%)
TP2: $23.32
TP3: $24.43–$24.50
R:R panduan: entry $19.9–$19.6 vs stop $19.4 → risiko ~$0.5 untuk potensi $2.5–$5.0 (≥1:5 hingga 1:10).
Income play: tahan inti posisi untuk yield ~13.4% sambil trading sebagian di level teknikal.
Fundamental Singkat (yang paling relevan)
Pertumbuhan portofolio: MBS $87.3B (+10% QoQ).
Spread & margin: NIS 0.67% (naik +0.93 pp YoY); NIM trailing kuartal berada di 0.97% (sempat puncak 1.04%).
Dividen: EAD $0.73 vs div $0.70 → coverage 1.04×; kenaikan div awal tahun +7.8% tetap terdukung.
BVPS: $19.25 (+4% QoQ) — tren BV kembali naik seiring repricing MBS.
Valuasi: P/B ~1.09×; rerating ke 1.15–1.16× → nilai wajar $22.14–$22.33 (di atas harga pasar saat ini).
Katalis 3–12 Bulan
Cut FFR berlanjut → biaya dana turun, MBS rally, BV naik.
Stabil/naik-nya NIS & NIM → memperkuat coverage dan mempertahankan dividen.
Peer rerating (AGNC premium) menarik aliran dana ke NLY (diskon relatif).
Pembelian kembali/optimalisasi leverage jika kondisi pasar kondusif.
Risiko Utama
Inflasi re-accelerate / Fed tunda pemotongan → biaya dana naik, harga MBS turun → tekan BV, NII, coverage.
Volatilitas MBS/hedging bisa menggerus spread jangka pendek.
Kebijakan leverage: salah kelola durasi/hedge memperbesar drawdown saat suku bunga berbalik.
*Disclaimer:
This information is provided for general information purposes only. Consider your investment objectives, financial resources and other relevant circumstances carefully before investing. This is not an invitation or an offer to invest, nor is it financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any investment.
