Analisis Saham - Incyte (INCY)
Aries Yuangga, Wakil Penasihat Berjangka
Tez: BUY. Q3’25 beat atas & bawah (revenue $1.37B, +20% YoY; EPS $2.26) dan guidance FY25 dinaikkan ke $4.23–$4.32B. Neraca kuat (kas & surat berharga ~$2.9B).
Growth drivers:
Povorcitinib (oral JAK1): pendaftaran HS ke EMA by YE25 dan FDA early-26; PN & vitiligo fase 3 baca data 2026; asthma PoC berjalan.
Onkologi:
INCA33890 (TGFBR2×PD-1) untuk MSS CRC: ORR 15.2% pada pasien sangat sulit (banyak liver mets, pasca/ gagal CKI); target registrasional 2026 (monoterapi + opsi kombinasi SOC).
INCB161734 (KRAS-G12D) untuk PDAC: ORR 20% (600mg) & 34% (1200mg); durability readout 1H26, arah kombinasi kemo untuk 1L.Komersial: Hem/Onc +107% YoY ke $171M dipimpin Niktimvo ($46M, +27% QoQ), ditopang Jakafi & Opzelura.
Analisis Teknis (4H)
Harga saat ini: $91.61
Buy Accumulation Zone (Fibo):
0.5: $87.56
0.618: $86.03
0.705: $84.90 ← area DCA inti
Fibo 1.000: $81.08 (batas invalidasi struktur swing)
Resistance / Magnet:
$94.04 (swing high / 0-lvl)
$100.03 (psych round number)
$110.02 (extension)
Bacaan struktur: Breakout base Sep–Oct, pullback sehat ke zona Fibo berpotensi melanjutkan leg ke $100→$110 jika earnings-momentum + newsflow pipeline berlanjut.
Setup Trading
Strategi masuk:
Scale-in: $87.6 → $86.0 → $84.9.
Momentum add jika close > $94.1 (reclaim high).
Stop: konservatif <$84.2; protektif penuh <$81.0.
Target profit:
TP1: $94.0–$94.5
TP2: $100.0
TP3: $110.0
R:R contoh: entry rata $86.8 vs stop $84.2 (-$2.6) untuk target $100 (+$13.2) → ~1:5; ke $110 → ~1:9.
Fundamental Singkat (poin terpenting)
Pendapatan Q3’25: $1.37B (+20% YoY); EPS $2.26 (beat).
Guidance FY25: dinaikkan $4.23–$4.32B.
Kas: ~$2.9B (cukup biayai fase akhir & launch).
Pipeline near-/mid-term Catalysts:
HS filing (EMA/FDA YE25–early-26).
PN & Vitiligo (fase 3, data 2026).
INCA33890 registrasional MSS CRC start 2026.
KRAS-G12D durability 1H26; potensi kombinasi 1L PDAC.
Tafasitamab (Monjuvi) 1L DLBCL: data akhir 2025.
Katalis 3–12 Bulan
Regulatory filing povorcitinib (HS) + label expansion jalur inflamasi.
Readouts onkologi (durability KRAS-G12D; desain registrasional MSS CRC).
Akselerasi Opzelura/Jakafi/Niktimvo mendorong revenue & margin.
Kemitraan/kombo untuk program onkologi meningkatkan probabilitas keberhasilan & nilai.
Risiko Utama
Regulatory risk (HS filing; ekstensi PN/Vitiligo/Asthma).
Clinical risk (ORR/DoR tak replikasi pada fase lanjut; kombinasi gagal).
Kompetisi & harga di dermatologi/onkologi.
Eksekusi komersial pada peluncuran baru.
*Disclaimer:
This information is provided for general information purposes only. Consider your investment objectives, financial resources and other relevant circumstances carefully before investing. This is not an invitation or an offer to invest, nor is it financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any investment.
