Analisis Saham - Marvell Technology (MRVL)
Aries Yuangga, Wakil Penasihat Berjangka
Marvell (NASDAQ: MRVL) bukan pembuat GPU AI seperti Nvidia, tapi justru menjadi “tulang punggung AI hyperscaler” lewat custom silicon, packaging, power management, dan data center infrastructure. Investor Day terakhir memperlihatkan betapa besarnya positioning Marvell di era AI.
✅ Design win besar di Amazon AWS (Trainium) & Microsoft Azure (Maia 100)
✅ 2nm SRAM & multi-die packaging breakthrough
✅ Custom AI silicon jadi growth engine baru
✅ Valuasi masih jauh di bawah historical average (diskon 33%)
✅ Revenue growth & EPS acceleration mulai 2025–2028
Analisis Teknikal
Harga Saat Ini: $73.51
Area Akumulasi Ideal: $56.10 – $62.37
Support Kuat: $47.09
Resistensi Jangka Pendek: $77.65
Target Jangka Menengah: $98.21
MRVL baru breakout dari konsolidasi besar, namun pullback ke zona Fibonacci 0.5–0.705 ($56–62) adalah entry strategis untuk akumulasi jangka menengah. Jika retest support sukses, potensi rally ke $98 terbuka lebar mengikuti ekspansi AI chip hyperscaler.
Setup Trading
Buy Zone Akumulasi: $56.10 – $62.37
Stop Loss: < $52.00
Target Profit (TP):
TP1: $77.65
TP2: $98.21
Potensi Keuntungan dan Risiko
✅ Custom AI silicon revenue $650M (FY25), menuju multi-billion
✅ Design win besar: AWS Trainium, Microsoft Maia
✅ 2nm SRAM → industry-first ultra-fast memory
✅ Multi-die packaging efisiensi tinggi (cost & power saving)
✅ Cloud AI data center TAM naik 29% CAGR → $75B (2028)
✅ EPS growth 20%+ CAGR hingga 2028
✅ Valuasi P/E 26x → diskon 33% dari rata-rata 5-tahun
⚠️ Margin ASIC custom lebih tipis vs core portfolio
⚠️ Kompetisi Broadcom, dual-sourcing hyperscaler
⚠️ Foundry yield & supply chain execution risk
⚠️ Potensi penurunan capex cloud global jika makro slowdown
Fundamental Kunci & Katalis
1️⃣ AI Custom Silicon — Growth Engine Baru
FY25: $650M (11% total sales)
Target >50% data center revenue dari AI custom silicon
Hyperscaler fully dependent on Marvell for Trainium (AWS) & Maia (Azure)
2️⃣ Packaging & Memory Leadership
2nm SRAM pertama di industri
Multi-die packaging → cost saving vs monolithic die
Integrated power delivery → AI cluster power efficiency
3️⃣ Data Center AI TAM Eksplosif
TAM $21B (2023) → $75B (2028)
Target Marvell: 20% market share AI data center semiconductors
4️⃣ Valuasi Growth Masih Undervalued
PEG ratio 0.57x → paling murah di sektor AI semis
5️⃣ Hyperscaler Partnership Deep Moat
AWS & Azure sudah masuk production
Dual sourcing risk minimal short-term
Deep IP portfolio & custom silicon leadership sulit ditiru
Wall Street Rating: BUY (4.48 dari 5)
Dari 41 analis:
✅ 26 Strong Buy
✅ 9 Buy
⚠️ 6 Hold
❌ 0 Sell
❌ 0 Strong Sell
Target Harga Konsensus 12 Bulan:
Base Case = $98
Bull Case = $110 (jika hyperscaler adoption lebih cepat)
Bear Case = $60 (jika AI capex slow down)
Kesimpulan
Marvell (MRVL) saat ini adalah salah satu AI infrastructure pick paling underrated di Wall Street. Bukan headline seperti Nvidia, tapi di balik layar menguasai plumbing AI hyperscaler global:
✅ Custom silicon hyperscaler dominasi (AWS + Azure)
✅ Packaging + memory + power delivery leadership
✅ Growth story AI data center masif
✅ Valuasi diskon tajam untuk growth seperti ini
BUY on pullback $56–62 untuk positioning multi-year AI infrastructure wave.
*Disclaimer:
This information is provided for general information purposes only. Consider your investment objectives, financial resources and other relevant circumstances carefully before investing. This is not an invitation or an offer to invest, nor is it financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any investment.
