Analisis Saham - Appian (APPN)
Aries Yuangga, Wakil Penasihat Berjangka
Tesis: Re-rating sedang berlangsung. Q3 kuat (akselerasi pertumbuhan + profit melonjak) mengonfirmasi narasi AI + automasi proses yang makin “top of mind” di enterprise.
Valuasi masih menarik: ~4.5x EV/FY25 Sales (turun ke ~4.0x FY26) — diskon vs software growth mid-teens.
Profitabilitas membaik: FY25 guide Adj. EBITDA $67–70M (~9.6% margin); Q3 Adj. EBITDA $32.2M (17.2% margin) berkat sales productivity ratio 3.5 (naik 9 kuartal beruntun).
Rating: BUY — fokus akumulasi disiplin di “buy zone”, manfaatkan momentum pasca-earnings.
Analisis Teknikal
(chart 4H yang kamu kirim)
Harga saat ini: $42.31
Liquidity/High to watch: $43.12 (swing high pasca-earnings)
Zona Akumulasi (Buy Zone):
$35.84 (0.5 fib)
$34.12 (0.618)
$32.86 (0.705)
$28.56 (1.0 / demand terakhir)
Target Teknis:
TP1: reclaim + close > $43.12
TP2: $52.91 (projection leg berikutnya)
Invalidasi: Weekly close < $28.56
Bacaan struktur: Impulse vertikal pasca-earnings → normalisasi ke area $36–33 (absorpsi supply) → higher-low → potensi trend continuation ke $53.
Setup Trading
DCA bertahap:
40% di $35.8–34.5
40% di $34.1–32.9
20% di $30–28.6 (hanya jika ada flush)
Stop-loss: Weekly close < $28.56 (invalidasi struktur).
Take-profit: parsial di $43.1–45, sisanya $50–52.9.
Opsi (opsional): Cash-secured put $32–$35 (30–45 DTE) untuk entry diskon; pasca terisi, jual covered call $50–55 untuk yield enhancement.
Risk control: ukuran posisi konservatif; short interest ~6.8% → potensi squeeze namun dua-arah.
Tesis Fundamental — Kenapa APPN?
AI untuk otomasi proses = real ROI
Use case terbukti: 36% lebih cepat invoice processing, 83% lebih cepat patient intake, 3x audit, 95% otomasi order management.
Appian AI / IDP klaim akurasi 95–99% (vs ~60% teknologi lama). Agent Studio (beta oversubscribed) memungkinkan business users bikin agents via natural language.
Akselerasi Growth + Lonjakan Margin
Q3 Revenue $187M, +21% YoY, jauh di atas konsensus $174M.
Subscription akselerasi ke +17% cc; total +19% cc.
Adj. EBITDA $32.2M (17.2% margin), naik >10ppt YoY; Opex hanya +3% YoY.
Guidance Naik (FY25) & Jalur FY26
FY25 sales $711–715M (+15–16%) (naik dari +13–14%).
Adj. EBITDA $67–70M.
FY26 Street: $790.5M (+11%) — ruang ekspansi margin berlanjut via produktivitas GTM + larger deals.
Valuasi Diskon vs Peers
EV/FY25 Sales ~4.5x (FY26 ~4.0x) — di bawah banyak mid-teens growers (WDAY/ADBE) yang justru dinilai “AI net-losers”.
Memang ~40x Adj. EBITDA saat ini, tapi delta margin membaik cepat.
Valuasi & Risiko
Bull case: percepatan work automation + cross-sell AI (IDP, Agent Studio) → pertumbuhan > mid-teens + ekspansi margin → rerating 5–6x sales.
Bear case / Risiko:
Normalisasi belanja IT/per-seat + makro menekan deal-cycle.
EBITDA masih tipis; eksekusi perlu konsisten agar multiple terjaga.
Kompetisi platform otomasi/low-code (workflows, document AI) dari vendor besar.
Volatilitas post-earnings tinggi.
Mitigasi: akumulasi bertahap di zona, kelola risiko via invalidasi $28.56, trim bertahap di resistansi.
Kesimpulan
APPN menandai fase awal rebound: bukti akselerasi pendapatan, produktivitas GTM yang membaik, dan jalur profit yang menggemuk di tengah valuasi 4–4.5x sales. Dengan setup teknikal yang jelas dan katalis AI yang konkret, risk/reward condong positif untuk swing menengah.
Rating: BUY — akumulasi disiplin di $36–33 (hingga $28.6) dengan target $43 → $53.
*Disclaimer:
This information is provided for general information purposes only. Consider your investment objectives, financial resources and other relevant circumstances carefully before investing. This is not an invitation or an offer to invest, nor is it financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any investment.
