Analisis Saham - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

Written By Fika Anzani

Aries Yuangga, Wakil Penasihat Berjangka

Ringkasan

AMD (NASDAQ: AMD) baru mencetak kuartal “triple-play”: pendapatan $9.25B (+36% YoY) dan EPS $1.20 (+30% YoY) di atas ekspektasi. Pendorongnya: Client & Gaming melonjak (Ryzen & Radeon/console), Data Center pulih kuat (EPYC Gen-5 & Instinct MI350x), sementara Embedded masih menekan. Guidance Q4: $9.6B (±$0.3B) di atas konsensus, dan kontrak AI accelerator besar (OpenAI, Meta, Oracle) menambah visibilitas hiper-growth 2026 saat MI450x masuk buku. Valuasi fair value internal beberapa model di ~$285 per saham, dengan 5-yr PT ~ $506 (CAGR ~15.5%).

Analisis Teknikal

(Berdasarkan chart mingguan per 5 November 2025)
Harga Saat Ini: $250.05
Zona Akumulasi Sehat: $208.18 – $194.44 (Fibonacci 0.5–0.618)
Support Penting / Level Invalidity: $184.31 (Fib 0.705)
Target Jangka Menengah: $266.39 → $281.38 → $300.94

AMD melesat pasca-ER dan kini cooling off. Secara struktur, re-test 0.5–0.618 adalah buy-the-dip ideal dengan $184.31 sebagai penentu invalidasi tren. Break & hold di atas $266.39 membuka jalan ke $281.38 dan $300.94.

Setup Trading

  • Buy Zone Akumulasi: $208.18 – $194.44 (DCA bertahap; tambah agresif dekat $195)

  • Stop Loss: < $183.50 (sedikit di bawah 0.705 @ $184.31)

  • Target Profit (TP):

    • TP1: $266.39

    • TP2: $281.38

    • TP3 (ekstensi): $300.94

Kinerja Q3 & Mesin Pertumbuhan

Segmen & Sorotan

  • Client & Gaming: $4.05B, +73% YoY, +12% QoQ — Client $2.8B (+65% YoY) (rekor Ryzen), Gaming $1.3B (+160% YoY) (Radeon & konsol).

  • Data Center: $4.34B, +22% YoY, +34% QoQ — permintaan EPYC Gen-5 dan Instinct MI350 Series menguat; MI350x ramp sudah jalan.

  • Embedded: $0.86B, −8% YoY, +4% QoQ — tetap drag.

  • Guidance Q4’25: pendapatan $9.6B (±$0.3B), di atas pra-ER konsensus.

  • Pipeline AI: mega-deals MI450x (OpenAI/Meta/Oracle) → katalis back-half 2026 saat deploy 1-GW mulai berdampak ke P&L.

Komentar Manajemen

  • Lisa Su (CEO): rekor revenue & profit, step-up trajectory; AI data center menjadi growth engine.

  • Jean Hu (CFO): rekor FCF; investasi berlanjut di AI & HPC → value jangka panjang.

Valuasi & Prospek

  • Fair value internal TQI: ~$285/sh (market cap ~$470B).

  • 5-yr PT: ~$506/sh dengan asumsi P/FCF ~20x, FCF margin optimal 30%, dan growth ~30% → CAGR ~15.5%.

  • Narasi strategis: AMD berpotensi jadi “Pepsi to Nvidia’s Coke” di AI accelerators—share ~20% bukan lagi fantasi pasca kontrak hyperscaler; skala EPYC + MI-series memicu operating leverage.

Kesimpulan

AMD menandai infleksi: Client & Gaming kembali eksplosif, Data Center akseleratif, dan runway AI (MI350x→MI450x) mempertebal multi-year visibility. Secara teknikal tersedia zona akumulasi jelas; secara fundamental, guidance naik dan deal flow AI menjadi moat momentum menuju 2026. Untuk horizon ≥3 tahun, risk-reward tetap menarik meski saham sudah rally.

✅ Triple-play Q3: beat revenue/EPS, segmen growth menyeluruh
✅ Pipeline AI accelerators (MI350x/MI450x) + kontrak hyperscaler besar
✅ Guidance Q4 di atas konsensus; operating leverage membaik
⚠️ Eksekusi ramp MI450x & pasokan komponen
⚠️ Kompetisi sengit (NVDA) & siklus capex AI yang volatil

Rating: BUY. 📈🔋🖥️


*Disclaimer:

This information is provided for general information purposes only. Consider your investment objectives, financial resources and other relevant circumstances carefully before investing. This is not an invitation or an offer to invest, nor is it financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any investment.

Fika Anzani
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