Analisis Saham - Alphabet Inc. (GOOG)

Aries Yuangga, Wakil Penasihat Berjangka 

Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) mungkin nggak seheboh NVDA di media, tapi AI engine mereka—Gemini + TPU + Waymo—pelan-pelan jadi raksasa. Google sekarang bukan cuma mesin pencari, tapi penyedia AI subscription ecosystem dari device ke cloud.

✅ Cloud sales naik 28% YoY → $12.3B
✅ Net Income naik 46% → $34.5B
✅ AI inference langsung di device = recurring revenue baru
✅ Waymo: 250K paid rides/week → target 465M rides by 2030
✅ Valuasi diskon: P/E forward cuma 17.7x
✅ PEG ratio: 0.53 → paling murah di Mag 7
✅ EPS naik: $9.60 (2025) → $19.80 (2030)

Analisis Teknikal

• Harga Saat Ini: $180.55

• Zona Akumulasi Sehat: $170 – $173

• Support Penting: $165

• Resistensi Kuat: $208

• Target Jangka Menengah: $208 – $220

GOOG sedang membentuk higher low dan kemungkinan retest ke zona Fibo 0.5–0.618 sebelum breakout ke atas $200. Struktur bullish tetap utuh selama bertahan di atas $170.

Setup Trading

• Buy Zone Akumulasi: $170 – $173

• Stop Loss: < $165

• Target Profit (TP):

• TP1: $208

• TP2: $220+

Potensi Keuntungan dan Risiko

✅ Gemini + TPU = AI recurring revenue dari edge devices
✅ Cloud & AI growth seiringan → margin naik
✅ Waymo: potensi 465M rides → margin 40%
✅ Valuasi sangat murah untuk Magnificent 7
✅ EPS growth 21.8% CAGR hingga 2030

⚠️ Capex gede untuk cloud + TPU → tekanan FCF
⚠️ Regulasi ketat (EU AI Act, antitrust US) bisa hambat integrasi AI
⚠️ Model AI di edge belum sempurna → akurasi & hardware limit
⚠️ Kompetitor (MSFT, AMZN) terus inovasi → pressure tetap tinggi

Fundamental Kunci & Katalis

1️⃣ AI Everywhere = Mesin Uang Baru Google

• Gemini disisipkan ke semua device → mini-subscription

• TPU & on-device inference bikin biaya rendah, latency kecil

• Gemini + Workspace = monetisasi langsung via Gmail, Search, Docs

2️⃣ Cloud & AI = Twin Engines of Growth

• Google Cloud: $12.3B revenue Q1 (+28% YoY)

• EBIT margin Cloud: 17.7% dan naik

• Premium AI workloads = recurring annuity-style profit

3️⃣ Waymo = Autonomous Super Catalyst

• 250K paid rides/week, target 465M rides (2030)

• Margin bisa 40% → super profitable robotaxi

• Partnership dgn Uber, uji coba Tokyo → ekspansi global

4️⃣ Valuasi Termurah di Mag 7

• Forward P/E: 17.7x → vs MSFT (33x), NVDA (27x)

• PEG: 0.53 → growth underpriced

• EPS forecast: $9.60 → $19.80 by 2030

Pandangan Analis

• Wall Street Rating: BUY (4.44 dari 5)
  ✅ 41 Strong Buy, 16 Buy
  ✅ 11 Hold
  ❌ 0 Sell
  ✅ Sentimen naik pasca earnings Q1
  ✅ Analis bullish soal Gemini & Waymo monetization

Kesimpulan

Alphabet (GOOG) adalah raja AI diam-diam yang bisa meledak dalam beberapa kuartal ke depan. Dengan integrasi AI di seluruh lini (TPU, Workspace, Cloud), model bisnis recurring revenue, valuasi yang masih murah, dan katalis Waymo, Google jadi pilihan ideal buat long-term compounders.

✅ Valuasi termurah Mag 7
✅ AI + Cloud = margin boost
✅ Waymo = growth multiplier
✅ EPS naik 21.8% CAGR
✅ Buy zone sudah dekat → $170–$173

BUY buat long-term investor yang cari kombinasi value + AI growth. 🚀🤖

*Disclaimer:

This information is provided for general information purposes only. Consider your investment objectives, financial resources and other relevant circumstances carefully before investing. This is not an invitation or an offer to invest, nor is it financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any investment.