Kilas Balik Pasar Amerika : Pergerakan Mingguan 14 Juli - 18 Juli 2025

Aries Yuangga, Wakil Penasihat Berjangka  

📈 Pasar saham AS melanjutkan reli ke rekor tertinggi meskipun data ekonomi menunjukkan perlambatan. Katalis utama datang dari ekspektasi rate cut Fed yang semakin dekat dan laporan pendapatan yang solid dari sektor transportasi dan consumer staples. Investor terus menyerap komentar dovish dari pejabat FOMC, sambil memutar sektor ke saham AI dan defensif. Berikut rangkuman lengkap minggu ini. 📊🇺🇸

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Quick Recap

1️⃣ Pergerakan Indeks Pasar Saham

📈 S&P 500 dan Nasdaq mencetak all-time highs
📉 Treasury yield turun → risk-on sentiment makin kuat
📈 Technology (XLK) +1.15% – Nvidia & Arista cetak reli baru
📈 Consumer Staples (XLP) +0.98% – Conagra & PepsiCo mendorong sektor
📈 Industrials (XLI) +0.87% – Delta Air Lines outperform
📉 Healthcare (XLV) -0.62% – UnitedHealth masih tertekan
📉 Energy (XLE) -1.02% – Harga minyak koreksi akibat surplus inventori

2️⃣ Faktor-Faktor Penggerak Pasar

🗣️ CPI Juni: Core CPI m/m 0.2% (vs 0.3%), CPI YoY 2.7% (vs 2.6%) → disinflasi berlanjut
📉 PPI Juni: Core & Headline PPI flat 0.0% (vs ekspektasi 0.2%) → mendukung perlambatan inflasi
🗣️ Empire State Index: 5.5 (vs -8.3) → rebound manufaktur kuat
📈 Retail Sales Juni: 0.6% (vs 0.1%) → spending konsumen kuat
📉 Initial Jobless Claims: 221K (vs 233K) → pasar tenaga kerja tetap resilient
🗣️ Philly Fed Index: 15.9 (vs -1.2) → sinyal ekspansi industri
🔁 Consumer Sentiment: 61.8 (vs 61.4) → sedikit meningkat

3️⃣ Data Ekonomi AS

📈 CPI YoY: 2.7% (vs 2.6%)
📉 Core PPI m/m: 0.0% (vs 0.2%)
📉 Retail Sales m/m: 0.6% (vs 0.1%)
📉 Unemployment Claims: 221K (vs 233K)
📈 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: 15.9 (vs -1.2%)
📉 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment: 61.8 (vs 61.4)
📉 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations: 4.4% (vs 5.0%)

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Top Movers

📈 Nvidia (NVDA) +4.2% – Rumor peluncuran chip AI generasi berikutnya
📈 Delta Air Lines (DAL) +3.9% – Revenue & EPS kalahkan estimasi
📈 PepsiCo (PEP) +2.8% – Margin naik karena efisiensi biaya
📉 UnitedHealth (UNH) -3.5% – Kekhawatiran dari reformasi Medicare berlanjut
📉 Occidental Petroleum (OXY) -2.4% – Harga minyak jatuh

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US Equity & Currency Summary

📉 Dolar AS (DXY) melemah ke 98.461 → tekanan dari ekspektasi rate cut
📉 USD 5-day performance:

JPY +1.24%
EUR +0.81%
GBP +0.58%
CHF +0.52%
AUD +0.46%
CAD +0.31%
CNY -0.29%

📊 Yield US 10Y: 4.21% → terus menurun, mendukung tech & growth

Outlook dan Strategi Investasi

🤔 Data Inflasi = Kunci: CPI dan PPI minggu lalu (rilis 15–17 Juli) menunjukkan tren disinflasi yang terus berlanjut → Core CPI hanya 0.2% dan PPI flat, memperkuat prospek rate cut September
🛡️ Sektor Defensif dan AI = Pemimpin Baru: Staples, semiconductors & cloud stocks naik daun seiring turunnya yield
📉 Energy dan Healthcare Masih Tekanan: Harga minyak turun, reformasi Medicare menekan profitabilitas
📈 Quant Picks:
• Long Ideas: Credo Tech (CRDO), Palantir (PLTR), Arista (ANET)
• Short Ideas: Beyond Meat (BYND), Nikola (NKLA)
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Next Week: 21 – 25 Juli 2025🔍

📅 Data Ekonomi

📌 Selasa, 22 Juli
• Fed Chair Powell Speaks (19:30 WIB)
• Richmond Manufacturing Index (21:00 WIB)

📌 Rabu, 23 Juli
• Existing Home Sales (21:00 WIB)

📌 Kamis, 24 Juli
• Initial Jobless Claims (19:30 WIB)
• Flash Manufacturing PMI (20:45 WIB)
• Flash Services PMI (20:45 WIB)
• New Home Sales (21:00 WIB)

📌 Jumat, 25 Juli
• Core Durable Goods Orders m/m (19:30 WIB)
• Durable Goods Orders m/m (19:30 WIB)

🗓️ Earnings Highlights – 21–25 Juli

• Tesla (TSLA) → Est EPS: $0.83 | Rev: $25.9B
• Netflix (NFLX) → Est EPS: $4.52 | Rev: $9.5B
• United Airlines (UAL) → Est EPS: $3.73 | Rev: $15.4B
• Intel (INTC) → Est EPS: $0.28 | Rev: $12.8B
• Procter & Gamble (PG) → Est EPS: $1.45 | Rev: $20.3B
• IBM → Est EPS: $2.18 | Rev: $15.8B
• Verizon (VZ) → Est EPS: $1.10 | Rev: $33.1B
• Snap (SNAP) → Est EPS: $0.03 | Rev: $1.2B
• Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) → Est EPS: $0.49 | Rev: $6.1B
• American Airlines (AAL) → Est EPS: $1.42 | Rev: $14.6B

🌟 Fokus pasar minggu depan: PMI, Powell Speech, Durable Orders, dan Earnings besar jadi penentu arah suku bunga, consumer spending, dan sentimen AI/semis.

https://www.investing.com/earnings-calendar/ 

Conclusion

Pasar memasuki minggu penting dengan fokus utama pada sinyal makro dan earnings besar. Jika Powell tetap dovish dan PMI tetap ekspansif, tren risk-on berpotensi lanjut. Namun, volatilitas bisa muncul dari sektor komunikasi & semikonduktor selama earnings. Tetap selektif dan pantau setiap reaksi pasar. 📈📉⚖️

*Disclaimer:

This information is provided for general information purposes only. Consider your investment objectives, financial resources and other relevant circumstances carefully before investing. This is not an invitation or an offer to invest, nor is it financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any investment.